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Short-Term Forex Technical Outlook: NZD/USD (Update)

Friday, 21 November 2008 11:20:03 GMT

Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

The New Zealand dollar fell to a six-year low against the U.S. dollar over the last 24 hours of trading, and may continue to move lower over the remainder of the trading session as risk aversion continues to drive price action in the forex market.

Currency Pair: NZD/USD
Chart: 60 Min Charts
Short-Term Bias: Bearish

Analysis Update

NZDUSD2_11-21

The NZDUSD fell lower over the last few hours of trading to support a bearish outlook for the pair. During the overnight session, the pair reached a high of 0.5348, but failed to break above the 10/27 low of 0.5350. The lack of momentum to push higher suggests that the pair will continue to slide lower over the near-term, and we may see the pair pull back towards the previous day’s low of 0.5196. Over the following week, I expect risk trends to drive price action in the forex market, and we may see the pair break lower as carry demands falter. However, the fundamental event risks scheduled for the next 24 hours may call for a change in our outlook.

Analysis

NZDUSD1_11-21
The New Zealand dollar fell to a six-year low against the U.S. dollar over the last 24 hours of trading, and may continue to move lower over the remainder of the trading session as risk aversion continues to drive price action in the forex market. The NZDUSD continued to hold within a downward trending channel over the week, and reached a low of 0.5196 during yesterday’s trading session. The break below the 10/27 low suggests that investors remain bearish against the high-yielding New Zealand dollar, and we may see the pair work its way towards the bottom of the channel over the following week. However, the divergence from the 120 SMA suggests that the pair may higher over the next few hours of trading, but the lack of risk appetite amongst investors continues to favor a bearish outlook for the pair. Be sure to check out other Technical Reports from DailyFX for additional information on the major currency pairs.

To contact the author of this article, please email: dsong@fxcm.com

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