Futures positioning has not changed much in the past few weeks, therefore conditions remain ripe for a USD reversal.
US Dollar Index: The composite COT has dropped from high levels, which warns of a top.
Implications: Topping?
EUR: Composite COT remains near historically low levels, which is suggestive of a bottom.
Implications: Bottoming?
GBP: The interpretation of the British Pound COT numbers are the exact same as the interpretation of the COT numbers for the Euro.
CHF: The 52 week index turned from 0, suggesting that a CHF bottom (USDCHF top) is forming.
Implications: bottoming?
JPY: Bottoms in the USDJPY occur when speculators are extremely long the JPY (short USDJPY), which is not yet the case. Continue to favor Yen strength.
Implications: Bullish
CAD: CAD positoning is neutral. The Composite COT is near 0. There is nothing worth noting.
Implications: Neutral
AUD: Composite COT is at a level that previously indicated an important low (March 2006). This combined with the turn up from 0 in the 52 week index favors strength.
NZD: The NZD index has turned from 0. Speculators were recently net short the largest amount of NZD on record (the record only goes back a few years though). These are bullish signals.
Jamie Saettele writes Forex Technicals: The Day Ahead, Monday-Thursday (published at 6 pm EST), Daily Technicals every weekday morning (9 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), and analysis of currency crosses throughout the week. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
Contact at jsaettele@dailyfx.com